Experts warn that the proposed reform to Mexico's Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law poses risks to transparency and fiscal discipline. The legislative changes could allow public debt to be used to cover operating expenses instead of investment projects.
An analysis by the think tank México Evalúa indicates that the initiative aims to anticipate budget pressures and improve medium-term planning. The goal is to provide greater certainty for investment and to bring transparency to financial obligations that extend beyond a single presidential administration.
The reform seeks to streamline priority projects, which would represent progress given the current lag in public investment. In 2025, physical investment in the country dropped to 770 billion pesos, reaching its lowest level since 2008. Currently, only a portion of national debt is allocated to this sector.
Risks to Congressional Autonomy
Despite the potential benefits, the legislative amendment carries warnings regarding public finances. Commencing contracts without secured funding could limit competition and drive up the cost of infrastructure projects.
Public finance specialist Cano noted that the reform creates room for discretion and weakens the role of Congress. "Building a bridge next year, but failing to develop it if there is no revenue growth, can carry a political cost; therefore, this reform could mean that certain projects begin to displace other priorities defined by Congress," he explained.
The proposal also proposes an alteration to the calculation of the budget balance by failing to consider Pemex's investment spending. This decision undermines the regulations of the Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law, which already establish how the deficit should be calculated.
The specialist warned that the reform breaks the guarantee that debt will be used for productive investment. "With this reform, the difference between spending and revenue (the deficit) can no longer be equal to investment spending; therefore, debt could be used for operating expenses. It can no longer be guaranteed that debt will be used for investment," he emphasized.
