An Israeli official stated Sunday that the Iranian regime is not expected to collapse during the ongoing conflict but rather months after hostilities cease. This assessment comes as Operation Roaring Lion enters its fourth week of military engagements. The official clarified that no planning anticipated the public taking to the streets while under active bombardment.
The official indicated that the fall of the government is anticipated to occur subsequent to the cessation of war. Assessments suggest internal instability will surface several months following the immediate combat phase. This timeline contradicts earlier speculation regarding a rapid collapse during active strikes.
The official indicated that the United States has intensified the pace of its strikes against Iran in recent days. He described U.S. President Donald Trump as moving toward taking control of Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal. Such a move is potentially a game changer that could severely damage the regime’s finances.
Officials argue that seizing the terminal would create extreme economic strangulation for the Islamic Republic. The disruption would severely damage the regime’s finances and ability to pay salaries. The official added that Tehran would struggle to fund operations, potentially triggering internal collapse within the government structure.
Regarding leadership stability, Israel believes Mojtaba Khamenei remains alive while the Revolutionary Guard Corps manages affairs. This distinction highlights the current power dynamics within the Iranian security apparatus. Washington is reportedly holding exploratory contacts with Tehran regarding a possible agreement. The official added that the Americans are talking with the Iranians about a deal.
Qataris are pushing for an agreement but Trump is not giving in and wants a surrender deal on his terms. Those terms reportedly include the removal of all enriched uranium and dismantling the nuclear program without a deadline. The official stated the Americans are talking with the Iranians about a deal but described the discussions as preliminary.
Between a surrender agreement and waiting for regime change, Israeli officials prefer the latter outcome. A new regime would reportedly abandon the nuclear program and hand over the enriched uranium. However, the final decision ultimately rests with the U.S. President.
Overnight, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran threatening to destroy its power stations. The administration demands the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for unrestricted shipping. Iran’s armed forces responded that attacking energy infrastructure will lead to targeting all U.S. assets in the region.
Iranian media state that all energy infrastructure belonging to the United States in the region will be targeted in retaliation. Iran imposed restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the war. This effectively controlled traffic through the strategic waterway driving up global oil and gas prices.
Before the conflict, more than 130 vessels passed through the strait daily on average before restrictions were applied. That number has now dropped to three or four ships per day according to the Israeli official. This drastic reduction poses a serious risk to global energy markets and international supply chains.
